System Overview
Polymarket API
Market data source
↓
Data Collector
Every 5 minutes
↓
SQLite Database
Price history + trades
↓
Strategy Engine
Signal generation
ML Model
XGBoost (72% acc)
↓
Execution Engine
Paper trading
↓
Telegram
Alerts & updates
Trading Strategies
Each strategy looks for different market inefficiencies:
Dual Arbitrage Active
Finds when YES + NO prices don't add to 100%. Risk-free profit.
Mean Reversion Active
Buys when price drops too far from average, sells when it recovers.
Market Maker Active
Places bid/ask orders to capture the spread.
Time Arbitrage Active
Exploits predictable price patterns at certain hours.
ML Prediction Active
Uses machine learning to predict 6-hour price direction.
Value Betting Disabled
Finds underpriced outcomes based on implied probability.
Data Storage (Single Source of Truth)
All data lives on EC2. Local machines are for development only. The EC2 instance is the authoritative source for all market data, trades, and positions.
| Database |
Purpose |
Location |
| market_history.db |
Price snapshots every 5 minutes (8.2 MB) |
EC2 (primary) |
| pqap_prod.db |
Trades, positions, P&L history |
EC2 (primary) |
| paper_trading_state.json |
Current portfolio state |
EC2 (primary) |
Environment Architecture
EC2 (Production)
- Runs 24/7
- All databases live here
- Executes all trades
- Single source of truth
Local (Development)
- For code changes only
- Syncs code to EC2
- No production data
- Can be turned off
Environment Details
| Component |
Details |
| Dashboard URL |
https://pqap.tailwindtech.ai |
| Server |
AWS EC2 (us-east-1) |
| SSL |
Let's Encrypt via Traefik |
| Mode |
Paper Trading (simulated) |
How It Works (Simple Version)
1. Data Collection: Every 5 minutes, we fetch prices from Polymarket for 50 markets and save them to our database.
2. Analysis: Our strategies analyze this data looking for patterns - like prices that moved too far from normal, or markets where the math doesn't add up.
3. Signals: When a strategy finds an opportunity, it generates a "signal" - a recommendation to buy or sell.
4. Execution: The execution engine takes these signals and simulates trades (paper trading). Eventually, this will place real orders.
5. Monitoring: This dashboard shows you what's happening. Telegram sends alerts for important events.